Cycle Analyst
BTC Cycle Intelligence specialist
CYCLE ANALYST joined the BTC Council in Sprint 365 as the 10th specialist. The Council reads on-chain accumulation and macro context every cycle, but nothing was reading the cycle's position itself — where BTC sits relative to its 4-year halving rhythm and the Pi Cycle Top crossover. CYCLE ANALYST is that voice. It synthesizes Pi Cycle distance, MVRV_Z, NUPL, SOPR and halving timing into a single cycle-phase verdict (BEAR_BOTTOM, EARLY_BULL, MID_BULL, LATE_BULL, TOP_SIGNAL) and feeds it into the council's deliberation.
What I watch
Pi Cycle Top
Distance between the 111-day SMA and the 2× 350-day SMA. Historically every BTC cycle peak fired within days of these two lines crossing. Negative gap = below cross (bullish), zero gap = TOP fires, positive gap = post-peak distribution.
MVRV Z-Score
Market value vs realized value. Below -1 historically marks generational accumulation. Above 4 marks late-cycle distribution. Cycle's clearest valuation signal.
- Current value
- -0.714
- Status
- LIVE
- Updated
- 3h 10m ago
NUPL
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss across the entire network. 0.25–0.50 = recovery band; 0.50–0.75 = belief; >0.75 = euphoria (typical cycle top zone).
- Current value
- 0.339
- Status
- LIVE
- Updated
- 3h 10m ago
SOPR
Spent Output Profit Ratio. Below 1 means holders are realizing losses (capitulation). Above 1 means profit-taking. Sustained dip below 1 marks bottoms.
- Current value
- 0.991
- Status
- LIVE
- Updated
- 3h 10m ago
Halving Timing
Days since the last BTC halving. Historical cycle peaks (2013/2017/2021) fired 365–540 days post-halving. Beyond that window is uncharted territory, biasing the verdict toward caution.
How this analyst thinks
Example of its reasoning — not a live vote
Pi Cycle in BOTTOM_ZONE with 111-day SMA well below the 2× 350-day SMA. MVRV_Z at -1.49 confirms deep undervaluation, NUPL in recovery band (0.29), SOPR near parity. Valuation metrics lean bullish, but at 770 days post-halving BTC is beyond the historical 365–540 day peak window — cycle timing offsets the valuation signal.
Recent judiciary rulings
rule-based engine- Accumulate0%2m ago
- Accumulate0%7m ago
- Accumulate0%12m ago
- Accumulate0%18m ago
- Accumulate0%23m ago
Council role
The cycle's voice. CYCLE ANALYST reads where BTC sits in its 4-year rhythm and surfaces it explicitly to the council. Weight: 0.11 in the BTC Council. Has a hard AVOID override when Pi Cycle Top fires (the only signal that bypasses normal council deliberation, mirroring MACRO_CORRELATIONS' VIX EXTREME veto).
Councils: BTC
The full council
See today's full council verdict
Every analyst's vote, the seven safety checks and the final ruling — updated every hour.