What is the Puell Multiple?
The Puell Multiple is a Bitcoin on-chain metric that measures the daily value of newly issued Bitcoin (miner revenue) relative to its 365-day moving average.
In plain terms: it answers the question "are miners making significantly more or less money today than they typically have over the past year?"
The answer to that question has historically been one of the most reliable indicators of where Bitcoin is in its market cycle.
The formula is simple:
Puell Multiple = Daily Bitcoin Issuance Value / 365-Day Moving Average of Daily Issuance Value
Why miner revenue matters
Bitcoin miners are the most important participants in the Bitcoin ecosystem. They provide the computational security that makes Bitcoin trustworthy. In return, they receive newly minted Bitcoin as a reward.
Miners have fixed costs -- electricity, hardware, facilities. These costs are denominated in fiat currency. Their revenue is denominated in Bitcoin. When Bitcoin's price rises, their revenue increases dramatically relative to their costs. When Bitcoin's price falls, miners can be forced to sell their Bitcoin holdings just to cover operating expenses.
This creates a predictable dynamic:
When miner revenue is extremely high relative to historical norms, miners are generating exceptional profits. Historically, this coincides with market peaks -- retail enthusiasm is at maximum and price has overshot fundamental value.
When miner revenue is extremely low relative to historical norms, miners are operating at or below the margin of profitability. Historically, this coincides with market bottoms -- selling pressure from distressed miners contributes to the final capitulation phase.
The Puell Multiple quantifies exactly where miner revenue sits relative to historical norms -- providing a signal that has proven remarkably consistent across Bitcoin's cycles.
How to read the Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple oscillates around 1.0, which represents average historical miner revenue.
High readings (above 4): Miner revenue is extremely elevated relative to historical norms. This has historically been associated with market tops and the peak of speculative excess. Caution is warranted.
Low readings (below 0.5): Miner revenue is well below historical norms. Miners are under stress. This has historically been associated with market bottoms and the final capitulation phase.
Normal readings (0.5 to 4): Miner revenue is within a normal historical range. No extreme signal in either direction.
The historical track record
The Puell Multiple has identified every major Bitcoin market top and bottom in its measurable history.
In December 2017, as Bitcoin approached $20,000, the Puell Multiple reached approximately 10 -- miners were making 10 times their typical revenue. The bear market began within weeks.
In December 2018, at the cycle bottom near $3,200, the Puell Multiple fell below 0.5 -- miners were making less than half their typical revenue. The recovery began within months.
In April 2021, as Bitcoin approached $65,000, the Puell Multiple reached approximately 7. A significant correction followed.
In November 2022, following the FTX collapse, the Puell Multiple reached historic lows below 0.3. The recovery that followed took Bitcoin from $15,500 to above $73,000.
The 2024 Bitcoin Halving impact
The Bitcoin Halving in April 2024 cut miner rewards from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block. This mechanical reduction in issuance directly impacts the Puell Multiple calculation.
Post-halving, the daily issuance value immediately halves, pushing the Puell Multiple lower. This is a known, predictable event that temporarily depresses the metric regardless of price action.
For this reason, Puell Multiple readings immediately following a halving should be interpreted in the context of the supply shock rather than treated as distress signals. The 365-day moving average gradually adjusts to the new post-halving issuance rate over the following year.
What the Puell Multiple is saying in 2026
As of April 2026, with Bitcoin trading near $78,000 and approximately one year post-halving, the Puell Multiple has recovered from the post-halving suppression and is moving into the moderate range -- consistent with mid-cycle positioning.
This reading aligns with the broader constellation of on-chain signals that AIOKA's council has been monitoring: MVRV Z-Score recovering from historic lows, Hash Ribbon confirming miner health, and exchange reserves declining.
The Puell Multiple is not flashing extreme overvaluation -- it is not in the danger zone above 4 that has historically preceded major tops. Nor is it in the capitulation zone below 0.5 that has historically marked generational bottoms.
Mid-cycle. Consistent with the early-to-mid bull market thesis.
How AIOKA uses the Puell Multiple
AIOKA's Chain Oracle agent monitors the Puell Multiple as one of its on-chain inputs. It contributes to the agent's assessment of miner health and cycle positioning -- particularly relevant for identifying extremes that have historically marked major turning points.
The Puell Multiple is most valuable as a regime indicator rather than a precise entry or exit signal. It tells you whether you are in historically dangerous territory (high readings) or historically attractive territory (low readings) -- not exactly when to buy or sell.
The bottom line
The Puell Multiple is one of the most historically reliable on-chain metrics in Bitcoin's short history. Its track record of identifying market extremes is genuinely impressive.
It will not make you rich on its own -- no single metric will. But understanding where miner profitability sits relative to historical norms provides meaningful context for assessing where Bitcoin is in its cycle.
In April 2026, the Puell Multiple is saying what most other on-chain metrics are saying: mid-cycle, not extreme, consistent with continued appreciation rather than imminent top.
AIOKA monitors the Puell Multiple as part of its 27-signal framework. The full signal breakdown is available at aioka.io/live.